Arrivals of Ukrainian refugees to Norway have risen sharply this autumn, even though Norwegian authorities have applied the strictest approach in Europe to this group in recent years, Nettavisen reports. According to the newspaper, more than 45 war refugees from Ukraine have reached Norway each day on average over the past few weeks. The increase follows a period in which arrival figures had fallen substantially.
Why it matters
Norway's policy toward Ukrainians has been unusually restrictive by European standards. The country has limited temporary protection for Ukrainian men in the age range regarded as old enough to potentially serve in the military — 18 to 59 in Ukraine. That does not mean each individual is physically fit for service. Under the collective protection scheme, people fleeing war can receive temporary residence in Norway without authorities assessing each person's need for protection individually. The stricter line had driven arrivals down considerably before this autumn's rebound.
Arrivals now sit above the planning forecast
In September, an expert group at the Norwegian Directorate of Immigration (UDI) raised its estimates for how many people have been forced to leave their homes because of the war. The agency's planning figures cover a range of scenarios, from relatively few arrivals to higher volumes. The current level places Norway within UDI's forecast for a development with more arrivals than the lowest scenario but fewer than the highest, according to the report.
A UDI official told Aftenposten that the number of applicants in September and October has been somewhat above what the agency expected. She said UDI anticipates an autumn increase because Ukrainians are planning ahead for the winter. The agency uses these forecasts to plan staffing, capacity and resource use.
Attacks and economic pressure drive departures
Russia's missile and drone attacks on Ukraine have claimed growing numbers of civilian lives in recent months, the report notes. Oleksandra Deineko, a researcher at NIBR OsloMet and the Institute for Defence Studies, believes the arrival numbers in Norway are explained primarily by conditions inside Ukraine. She told Aftenposten that Ukrainians expect a difficult winter and that the country lacks missiles to intercept rockets that travel high before following a path toward their targets — weapons that can be very hard to bring down.
Russian strikes are also affecting Ukrainian business. Several companies have halted operations or relocated westward within Ukraine, which removes jobs and income for people. Combined with high prices, this leads many to choose to leave the country, according to the report.
Beyond asylum seekers granted collective protection in Norway, more than 600 Ukrainians have applied for individual protection, in which authorities assess each person's need for protection rather than granting residence through the collective scheme.
Norway's restrictive stance has been a defining feature of its response in recent years, and the renewed rise tests how the system handles volumes above its planning assumptions. UDI's next step will be to see whether the autumn uptick continues into winter, when conditions in Ukraine are expected to worsen.
