Ethiopian federal forces and allied militiamen retook Mekelle, the capital of Tigray region, on 4 October 2026, according to Reuters, after earlier seizing the southern Tigray town of Alamata. The fighting, which resumed in late September, has tested the fragile peace set by the November 2022 Pretoria Agreement, and it comes alongside a newly announced coalition of seven armed and political organizations seeking to remove the government in Addis Ababa.
New Business Ethiopia reported on 9 November that the country's crises are converging — armed conflict, political fragmentation and humanitarian emergencies now raise questions about federal authority, civilian protection and national cohesion, not just regional security.
Why it matters
The Pretoria Agreement was meant to end the 2020–2022 war and set out a framework for disarmament, restored services and political normalization. Renewed fighting puts the durability of that deal in doubt. Deutsche Welle reported on 23 September that the renewed clashes were testing the fragile peace, and raised the risk that old adversaries and new political alignments could push Ethiopia into another dangerous phase.
The stakes extend beyond Tigray. The country's economy has been among the fastest growing in Africa, and outlets including The EastAfrican and Businessfront have asked whether renewed conflict could reverse those gains. Regional relationships are also under strain, with Addis Standard examining the Ethiopian-Eritrean escalation and its regional implications, and Legis1 reporting that the conflict is spreading as the risk of war with Eritrea grows.
A new opposition coalition
On 21 September, seven armed and political organizations announced the formation of the Alliance for Survival. The BBC reported that the coalition includes the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Tigray People's Liberation Front and four other groups. The organizations said they intend to remove the government in Addis Ababa, accusing it of presiding over conflict, destruction and poverty.
Government spokesperson Billene Seyoum told Reuters that the groups had already been cooperating for some time.
The alliance matters because it draws together organizations with different regional bases, histories and objectives — some of which have fought on opposite sides in past conflicts. That suggests opposition to the federal government is taking on a more coordinated national character.
It does not, however, show that the groups share a military command, a common political program or an agreed vision for the country. Whether they can cooperate beyond opposing the incumbent government remains unanswered.
Tigray: a military reversal, not a settlement
The sequence in Tigray has been rapid. Reuters reported on 28 September that federal forces and allied militiamen captured Alamata after an opposition offensive, citing diplomatic sources who confirmed the town's fall while noting that the extent of government control was initially unclear. The same report documented communications disruptions in Tigray and renewed accusations by Ethiopian military leadership that Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt were backing opposition forces. Those countries denied the allegations.
By 4 October, Reuters reported that federal forces and allied militias had regained Mekelle. The TPLF acknowledged withdrawing from the city and said its regional administration would operate temporarily from elsewhere.
The advance marked a significant setback for the TPLF. It did not resolve the political dispute over Tigray's administration, nor did it establish that armed resistance in the region had ended.
Amhara, Oromia, Gambella and Moyale
The conflict in Amhara continues to challenge federal authority and disrupt civilian life, according to the assessment. In Oromia, the long-running confrontation involving federal and regional security forces and the Oromo Liberation Army remains a major source of insecurity. Gambella has seen further violence and displacement.
The October crisis around Moyale showed how local administrative and territorial disputes can widen into communal confrontations with cross-border consequences. Reuters reported on 23 October that at least nine people had died in fighting in the border town and that thousands had fled into Kenya, citing an Ethiopian hospital official for the death toll and a Kenyan county commissioner for the number of arrivals.
The Associated Press later linked the violence to a longstanding boundary dispute between the Oromia and Somali regional states. It cited UNHCR information suggesting as many as 50,000 people may have crossed into Kenya, while noting the total was uncertain because some displaced people were staying with local families rather than in organized camps. The Reuters figure was an earlier count and the AP estimate a later one; they were not compiled at the same time or by identical methods.
Civilian protection in Arsi Zone
The Ethiopian Orthodox Tewahedo Church reported that at least 60 Orthodox Christians were killed in two October attacks in Arsi Zone, Oromia: 14 in Merti District on 20 October and 46 in Shirka District on 24 October.
BBC Amharic interviewed a resident whose father was killed and reported eyewitness accounts that children were among the victims. The regional government blamed the Oromo Liberation Army, though the BBC noted that the circumstances of the attacks remain contested.
What to watch
The coming weeks will show whether the federal advance in Tigray translates into a political settlement or simply a pause, and whether the Alliance for Survival moves beyond a joint statement toward coordinated action. Cross-border displacement from Moyale and the trajectory of Ethiopian-Eritrean relations are the other indicators to track.
