US voters go to the polls on 3 November in midterm elections that will settle whether Republicans keep their hold on Congress or Democrats gain the power to block Donald Trump's legislative agenda. All 435 House seats are being contested, along with 35 Senate seats and 39 governorships, according to The Guardian. Trump will remain president whatever the outcome, but the results will shape the last two years of his second term.
Why it matters
Congress has two chambers, the House and the Senate, and both must pass federal legislation before it becomes law. Both also oversee the executive branch. Whichever party controls them after 3 November will decide what the White House can accomplish and how closely it is scrutinised.
The Guardian reports that Trump has effectively framed the vote as a verdict on himself, telling supporters to "pretend I'm on the ballot". Democrats are hoping that discontent with the president translates into control of the House and possibly the Senate. Republicans are working to hold their majorities and avoid a stretch of stalled legislation and fresh investigations into the administration.
Governorships and state legislative races carry their own weight. They determine policy on education, reproductive rights, taxation and how elections themselves are run.
A pattern that favours Democrats
History is not on the president's side. The Guardian notes that the party holding the White House has lost House seats in 18 of the last 20 midterms, a losing rate of 90% going back to 1946.
That record is not automatic. George W. Bush's Republicans picked up seats in 2002 in the aftermath of the September 11 attacks. Barack Obama's Democrats were heavily defeated in 2010, and Trump's Republicans lost the House in 2018.
Democrats enter this cycle with momentum in the national picture. The Guardian cites the RealClearPolitics average of generic congressional polls, which showed Democrats ahead by 8.2 points in early October. Trump has been holding rallies in states that would normally be safe for Republicans.
That national lead may not translate into a large seat swing. Polarisation and years of redistricting have left few genuinely competitive House districts. Reuters has estimated that only about 40 to 50 House races are truly in play, according to The Guardian.
The House: a four-seat gap
Republicans are defending a slim House majority. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control.
Because every seat is up every two years, the battleground stretches across dozens of districts. Republicans are protecting vulnerable incumbents in states including New York, Texas and Iowa. Democrats are also defending members whose districts became harder to hold after congressional boundaries were redrawn.
The Senate: a handful of decisive contests
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats against 47 held by Democrats and independents who caucus with them. Democrats need a net gain of four to win a majority. If the chamber splits 50-50, Vice-President JD Vance, a Republican, casts the tiebreaking vote.
Thirty-three seats are up in the regular cycle, plus special elections in Florida and Ohio to complete terms vacated early. The Guardian identifies several races as central:
- Michigan: Progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is trying to keep an open seat in Democratic hands against Republican Mike Rogers, who picked up a late endorsement from Democrat Haley Stevens.
- Georgia: Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff holds a comfortable polling lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins.
- Maine: Republican Senator Susan Collins is defending her seat against Democrat Troy Jackson in a state Kamala Harris carried in 2024.
- Ohio: Democrat Sherrod Brown is seeking a return to the Senate against Republican Jon Husted.
- Texas: Democrat James Talarico is challenging Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Republicans have spent roughly $210m supporting Paxton, whose record has been dogged by scandal. No Democrat has won statewide in Texas since 1994, and Trump carried the state by nearly 14 points in 2024.
- Alaska: Democrat Mary Peltola is running against Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The contest drew controversy after Republicans accused the Democratic campaign of putting forward a second Dan Sullivan to confuse voters. A judge dismissed a Trump-backed lawsuit that sought to block certification of the result if Sullivan loses.
Governorships and the states
Voters will choose governors in 36 states and three US territories, filling 39 governorships in total. Notable contests include Alaska, Iowa, Florida, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
Thousands of state legislative seats are also on the ballot, alongside local offices, judicial contests and ballot measures covering taxes, abortion rights and voting rules.
The Guardian reports that the cost of living consistently ranks at the top of opinion polls, and that Democrats are campaigning heavily on affordability.
What to watch
Results will determine control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's term, with the closest Senate races likely to decide the chamber. The Guardian's reporting suggests the House will hinge on a small set of competitive districts, while the Senate may come down to a handful of states.
