Sky Sports tipster Lewis Jones, known to readers as Jones Knows, has picked Everton as his value bet for Monday Night Football, arguing that Newcastle's shortened standing in the betting market is not backed up by their performances. Newcastle host Everton at St James' Park, with the broadcaster's coverage beginning at 6.30pm and kick-off at 8pm, according to Sky Sports.
Jones points out that Newcastle are priced at 5/4 with Sky Bet to win the match — the longest odds they have carried for this fixture across their last six home meetings. In the two previous seasons, Sky Sports reports, they were priced at 7/10 and as short as 1/4 to beat Everton on their own ground.
Why it matters
The shift in price reflects a broader question about how quickly a team's reputation can outlast its results. Newcastle remain favourites with bookmakers, but the gap between their odds and their underlying numbers is wide enough that Sky Sports' lead analyst has chosen to bet against them. For punters following the Monday night fixture, the draw-no-bet market offers a way to take that position while keeping the draw onside.
Jones's reasoning rests less on Everton's form than on Newcastle's statistical profile. He notes that Newcastle are running an expected-goals supremacy of -0.58 per game, a figure he describes as the third-worst in the Premier League. That measure, which compares the quality of chances a side creates with those it concedes, sits awkwardly beside a home favourite's tag.
A result that flattered the hosts
Newcastle's win over Crystal Palace the previous weekend did not settle the argument, in Jones's view. Sky Sports reports that Newcastle were beaten on expected goals, on shot count and on corners in that match, making the victory look kinder than the performance warranted once the surface details are set aside.
The tipster also frames the club's situation around the departure of Eddie Howe, writing that the underlying numbers do not suggest a team worth trusting with a new manager in place. Matthias Jaissle, he adds, still has plenty to prove in the Premier League. Sky Sports does not elaborate on the circumstances of the managerial change beyond that reference.
Against that backdrop, Jones is backing Everton on the draw-no-bet market at 11/10 with Sky Bet. The bet returns a profit if Everton win and stakes back if the match ends level, meaning the draw acts as insurance rather than a loss.
The tipster's published record for the season offers context for the recommendation. Across week eight of his Premier League predictions, Sky Sports lists correct calls on an Aston Villa double chance and a Bournemouth draw-no-bet, alongside five losing selections covering player cards, fouls and a goals line. That week produced a loss of 0.24 points, leaving his season running total at +1.59. He has called 6 of 10 results correctly and 3 of 10 correct scorelines.
What to watch
The match is the week's final Premier League fixture, and the odds tell their own story about how the market views Newcastle. Whether Jaissle's side can generate the chance quality their price assumes — or whether Everton can hold them to a draw or better — will be settled at St James' Park on Monday night, with live coverage on Sky Sports from 6.30pm.
