Samsung is expected to overtake Apple as the world’s largest smartphone maker in 2026, according to a new forecast from Counterpoint Research reported by The Business Times. The shift is tied to a global memory chip shortage that is squeezing production costs across the industry.
Counterpoint’s analysis suggests Samsung will benefit from a more diversified supply chain and stronger position in mid-range devices, while Apple faces greater pressure from rising memory prices. The report does not specify shipment volumes or exact market share figures, but it frames the coming year as a turning point in the long-running rivalry between the two companies.
The projection arrives as the broader smartphone market continues to cool. Separate Counterpoint data, also cited by The Business Times, shows European shipments fell to a three-year low in the most recent quarter. AppleInsider notes that Samsung and Apple are now effectively tied in Europe, with both brands holding similar shares in a shrinking market. In Latin America, Counterpoint reported that Samsung and Apple were the only major vendors to grow in the second quarter of 2026, even as overall demand declined.
The memory crunch is a key factor in the forecast. Higher costs for DRAM and NAND chips are forcing manufacturers to adjust pricing and production strategies, and Counterpoint expects Samsung’s vertical integration in components to give it an edge over Apple, which relies more heavily on external suppliers.
Industry watchers will be watching whether Apple can offset rising component costs through premium pricing or if Samsung’s broader portfolio will cement its lead as the market downturn deepens.
