Cyclone Arnab, which formed in the Bay of Bengal two days ago, has intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and is moving toward India's Andhra Pradesh coast with winds of about 150 kilometres per hour, bdnews24.com reports. India's meteorological department expects the storm to make landfall around midday on Wednesday. Bangladesh is unlikely to take a direct hit, but rain is expected in parts of the country under the storm's influence.
The system arrived as meteorologist Dr Abul Kalam Mallik was making a broader point about October. Looking at records from 1900 to 2025, he said the number of cyclones forming in the Bay of Bengal in October has not risen, and the long-term trend is downward. What has changed is the strength of the storms that do form: a larger share of them now grow into extremely severe or catastrophic systems.
Why it matters
Bangladesh's coastline has repeatedly been struck by devastating cyclones in October and November, and in April and May. Those events have killed large numbers of people and caused heavy damage to homes, agriculture, livestock and coastal infrastructure. If October produces fewer storms but more of them reach extreme intensity, the warning window for coastal communities does not necessarily get easier.
The country's deadliest recorded cyclone hit on 12 November 1970. According to the Department of Disaster Management, about 300,000 people died, and some sources put the toll higher. On 29 April 1991, a cyclone killed more than 138,000 people; official figures record peak winds of 225 kilometres per hour. Cyclone Sidr struck the southern coast on 15 November 2007, killing 3,363 people according to government data and damaging homes, crops, livestock and the Sundarbans.
More recent events include Cyclone Rashmi, which hit the Bangladesh coast in October 2008, and Cyclone Aila on 25 May 2009, which caused widespread damage in the south-west; disaster management records list 190 deaths in Bangladesh. Cyclone Hudhud struck India's Andhra Pradesh coast in October 2014 with limited effects on Bangladesh, and Cyclone Bulbul crossed the West Bengal coast in November 2019 before entering Bangladesh, causing deaths, property damage and harm to the Sundarbans.
Early warnings credited with cutting losses
Mohammad Moniruzzaman Khan, director of the Institute of Disaster Management and Vulnerability Studies at Dhaka University, said preparation does much of the work of limiting cyclone damage. Timely warnings, public awareness, movement to safe shelters and the evacuation of livestock all play a part.
He said losses have fallen clearly over the past decade when measured against disasters such as the 1970 and 1991 cyclones, Sidr in 2007, Aila in 2009 and Amphan. Deaths, livestock losses and other damage are all lower on several indicators, he said. Communities cannot be moved out of harm's geographical path, but in his view the past ten years have brought substantial improvement in getting messages to people in time, raising awareness, moving people to shelters and relocating animals.
He does not expect losses to stop altogether. He pointed to weak coastal embankments and riverbank protection, unplanned urban growth and the effects of industrialisation as problems that need more effective handling. Water breaking through river and coastal embankments and flooding settlements causes damage every year, and he argued that infrastructure needs far more attention.
The Sundarbans as a first line of defence
Moniruzzaman Khan also stressed protecting the Sundarbans, describing the mangrove forest as a natural asset and wall that absorbs a cyclone's first impact and shields coastal communities behind it. In his view, damage to the forest's internal ecosystem and biodiversity would raise the long-term risk to coastal settlements. He linked that damage to unplanned local development, waterway transport and the lasting effects of various projects in and around the forest.
He called for effective monitoring to stop the felling of sundari trees, fishing with poison, the killing of deer and other wild animals, theft of golpata leaves and irregularities in honey collection. Administrative surveillance alone would not be enough, he said: local people need alternative livelihoods, and conservation efforts should bring in local representatives and communities.
Cyclone Arnab is expected to cross the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday, with Bangladesh watching for rain rather than a direct strike. The wider question raised by the record is whether the trend toward fewer but stronger October storms holds, and whether warning systems and embankments keep pace with it.
