New Zealand's two traditional governing parties recorded their weakest combined result on record in the country's general election, according to The Guardian, with voters directing their support toward smaller parties promising more sweeping change. National and Labour together secured 58% of the party vote on election night — the lowest combined share the two parties have ever received. Roughly seven in ten voters did not back Labour, and the same proportion did not back National.
The outcome left the country in what CNN described as political limbo, with the result too close to call and several hundred thousand special votes still to be counted before the final tally on 27 November.
Why it matters
The result, as reported by The Guardian, amounts to a rejection of the gradual, managerial style of government the major parties have offered for decades. Both National and Labour saw their support flow not to each other but to minor parties on their own side of the political spectrum.
Act and the Greens each posted their best-ever results, The Guardian reports. New Zealand First recorded its strongest showing since 2002, Te Pāti Māori held more seats than anticipated, and the Opportunity Party crossed the 5% threshold for the first time to enter parliament. The BBC reported that Opportunity has emerged as a potential kingmaker in the tight race.
The Guardian's analysis, written by political commentator Claire Robinson, places the blame for the major parties' decline on their own campaigns. Robinson argues that neither party offered a vision or set of policies that resonated, and that the two leaders — National's Chris Luxon and Labour's Chris Hipkins — struggled to generate enthusiasm. She writes that both campaigns focused on attacking the other leader while minor parties on their own flanks took votes from them.
A tale of two results
The two major parties emerge from the count in very different positions. According to The Guardian, Labour gained 2.2 percentage points and two seats compared with 2023, but that was not enough to form a government with the left bloc on election night. National fell 8.3 points, and the consequences were severe.
Because National won more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would normally allow, it receives no list seats at all. The Guardian reports that senior figures who depended on the list are likely to be out of parliament, including deputy leader and finance minister Nicola Willis, justice minister Paul Goldsmith, speaker Gerry Brownlee and senior MP Chris Bishop.
The quirk of New Zealand's mixed-member proportional system also expanded the size of the House. Parliament normally has 120 seats, with 61 needed for a majority. On election night the chamber had grown to 131, with six overhang seats for National and five for Te Pāti Māori, lifting the majority threshold to 66. The Guardian reports that the National–Act–New Zealand First grouping cleared that bar by a single seat: National's 42 plus 25 between Act and New Zealand First.
A one-seat margin, and what could shift it
That single-seat cushion is fragile. The Guardian notes that special votes have cost National two seats in both 2017 and 2023. This time, because National is already in overhang, the specials are unlikely to cost it seats directly — but if Act or New Zealand First lose party vote share, or if National loses a close electorate, the margin disappears. The Guardian points to Wairarapa, where National's election-night majority was just 139.
Luxon appeared to recognise the uncertainty. The Guardian reports that when he addressed the country at midnight he delivered no victory speech, acknowledging that National remained the largest party and had a route to forming a government but that the race was too close to call. Serious negotiations and compromises, he indicated, would wait for the final count. The existing government continues in caretaker mode in the meantime.
The Guardian also notes that Luxon's earlier decision to rule out working with Opportunity would, if the count holds, have spared him from having to reverse that position and call Opportunity leader Qiulae Wong. Should the special votes move even one seat, that call returns to the table.
Governing with no room to spare
Even a confirmed one-seat majority would leave little margin for error. The Guardian observes that in such a tight parliament every government MP becomes a kingmaker — a single backbencher with a grievance or a leadership grudge could hold the government to ransom, and one defection could bring it down. A byelection triggered by the death, resignation or scandal of an electorate MP would carry the same risk.
The BBC reported that voters described the mood as "flat," "tired" and "cynical," and characterised the contest as New Zealand's tightest election in years. Al Jazeera reported that New Zealanders turned out to vote in the closely contested general election.
The final count on 27 November will determine whether the one-seat majority survives and whether Luxon's path to government holds — or whether Opportunity's leader receives a call after all.
