Roughly 50 million voters have already returned ballots in the 2026 midterm elections, according to The New York Times, with early turnout running ahead of the 2022 cycle in every major Senate battleground as the final day of campaigning opened on Monday.
The New York Times reports that in a number of key states, registered Democrats made up a larger share of the early vote — both mail ballots and in-person early voting — than they did in 2024, and that the party has taken encouragement from stronger participation among constituencies it considers vital. Millions of ballots are still expected on Election Day itself, leaving both parties a last chance to make their closing arguments.
Why it matters
Control of the Senate is on the line, and Democrats have begun to speak openly about winning it — an outcome the Times describes as having once looked far out of reach. The party was buoyed by surveys showing tight races breaking its way, and by a New York Times/Siena University poll released Sunday night that put Democratic Senate candidates ahead of their Republican opponents in seven major battleground states.
The Times reports that for weeks, voter frustration over the cost of living has pulled even strongly conservative states into contention as President Trump's approval has slipped. The top 20 donors in the cycle have put about $2 billion into federal races, according to a Times analysis.
A weekend of surprises, and a Supreme Court filing
The last day of the campaign follows a weekend that shook several races, though the Times notes it is unclear whether any of it will move the outcome.
President Trump is scheduled to speak at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool on Monday afternoon, addressing an audience of about 50 people plus reporters. The appearance comes hours after his administration filed an emergency request asking the Supreme Court to direct California officials to set aside 20,000 mail-in ballots — the latest attempt by the administration to intervene in a state's election.
In Michigan, the Senate race was upended when Representative Haley Stevens, the Democrat who lost her primary to Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, backed Republican nominee Mike Rogers. In Kansas, Senator Roger Marshall released a video rebutting criticism over lawsuits he filed against more than 700 patients he had treated, seeking repayment of their debts; the Times reports he went around some of his top advisers to do so. On Sunday, Trump held a series of rallies, including one in Iowa where he discussed the weight of Representative Ashley Hinson, the Republican Senate nominee.
At a Ken Paxton campaign event in Conroe, Texas, north of Houston, about 150 people gathered under live oaks for free barbecue and drinks, along with what the Times described as visible unease and early blame-casting. Steve Toth, a Republican congressional candidate and Paxton ally, said he still expected Paxton to win but faulted Republicans aligned with Senator John Cornyn for damaging Paxton during a failed 2023 impeachment and this year's primary. "They spent $400 million against him," Toth said. "They never got on board."
In Ohio, Donald Trump Jr. spoke to Republicans at an airport near Toledo while supporters waited for Vice President JD Vance; the two had appeared together earlier in New York. Trump Jr. concentrated on characterizing Democrats as radical rather than on the strength of his party's candidates. "We are on the path toward communism," he said.
Closing arguments in Maine, Michigan and Iowa
Troy Jackson, the Democratic Senate nominee in Maine, spent Monday rallying canvassers around Portland, a Democratic stronghold, in a race the Times describes as closely contested and potentially decisive for the Senate. "I am hopeful that tomorrow we can celebrate," Jackson told more than 20 journalists gathered in Scarborough. He was joined by abortion rights activist Mini Timmaraju, who criticized Senator Susan Collins for backing judges who oppose abortion despite describing herself as a pro-choice Republican. "Troy Jackson evolved," Timmaraju said. "Susan Collins devolved." Jackson opposed abortion rights early in his career but, as Maine Senate president, helped pass legislation legalizing most abortions after Roe v. Wade was overturned.
In Michigan, Julie Bolen, 56, voted early in Harrison Township but left the Senate line blank. "I did not want Abdul, and I didn't want Mike Rogers either," she said. Bolen said she voted for Trump in 2024 as a Republican, regrets it and now considers herself an independent. A cancer survivor, she named health care as a major concern and said neither party has a clear direction.
Josh Turek, the Democratic Senate nominee in Iowa, told a coffee shop crowd that speaking there was a full-circle moment, according to the Times.
The Times notes that more than 400 of its reporters, editors, data analysts, video journalists and photographers have covered the midterms.
Watch whether Election Day turnout matches the early-vote surge, and how quickly the Supreme Court responds to the administration's California filing.
