Kenya's meteorological authority has placed Nyeri and 44 other counties under a heavy rainfall advisory, warning that downpours exceeding 20 millimetres in a 24-hour period are expected from October 24 through October 28, according to The Star, Kenya. The advisory, dated October 24, covers areas along the coast, the northeast, both sides of the Rift Valley highlands, the central highlands including parts of Nairobi, and sections of the southeastern lowlands. The Star, Kenya reports that the heaviest rain is anticipated between October 26 and 28, with intensity projected to ease by October 30.
Residents in the listed counties have been told to stay alert, as the rains are expected to arrive alongside gusty winds and, in some places, high temperatures.
Why it matters
The advisory lands in the middle of a rainy season that has so far failed to deliver. The Kenya Meteorological Services Authority (KMSA) had earlier said the El Niño rains would begin around October 8 and run into January, but large parts of the country have remained dry, The Star, Kenya reports. That gap between forecast and reality has left farmers uncertain about when to plant and put pressure on a weather service whose seasonal outlook is closely watched by agriculture, water and disaster-response agencies.
The current advisory also carries practical risks beyond farming. KMSA warned that strong southerly to southeasterly winds could exceed 25 knots over coastal, eastern and northern regions, and that high temperatures are likely to persist in the country's northern areas. Authorities have been urged to coordinate rescue operations should the rains cause incidents that endanger lives or property.
What the advisory tells residents
The weather service's guidance focuses on flood safety and lightning. KMSA noted that flood waters can appear in places that have not themselves seen heavy rain, particularly downstream, and advised people to avoid sheltering under trees or near grilled windows to reduce exposure to lightning strikes. It also called for caution during maritime activities and told residents in hot areas to stay hydrated and limit time in direct sunlight.
The advisory follows remarks last week by Peter Wambugu, the county meteorological services director, who said Nyeri residents should expect significant rain from October 23. Wambugu told KNA that the showers, part of the October–November–December short rains, would build in intensity over the following days. He urged farmers to consult agricultural extension officers in their areas about planting timing, and insisted the rains were indeed coming.
A season forecast to be wetter than usual
KMSA's seasonal outlook for October–November–December predicted above-average rainfall across most of the country, with only Turkana and small parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit expected to receive near-average amounts. Mean temperatures were forecast to run warmer than average nationwide. Eighteen counties were placed on red alert for flooding and mudslides.
The outlook, dated September 30, noted that October marks the start of the short rains and is especially significant for Meru, Tharaka-Nithi, Murang'a, Embu and Busia, where more than 200mm of rain typically falls. Above-average rainfall was projected for Makueni, Kajiado, Machakos, Nairobi, Kiambu, Kirinyaga, Isiolo, Nyiarua, Nyeri and parts of Taita Taveta, Laikipia, Tana River, Garissa, Wajir, Marsabit and Narok.
KMSA framed the season as a mixed prospect. On the positive side, the rains are expected to raise soil moisture, support agricultural output and improve water and pasture availability for livestock. River flows should increase, dams, water pans and groundwater should be replenished, and water availability for household, farm and industrial use should improve, with arid and semi-arid areas likely to see stressed water sources recover.
The authority also listed the downsides: waterlogged fields, delayed farm work, more crop disease and difficulty moving produce to market. It warned of waterborne disease outbreaks, including malaria, in areas with poor drainage, along with flash floods, landslides and localized damage to infrastructure. Heavy rain could raise runoff and cause flooding in some catchments, especially where drainage is inadequate.
Storm systems in the background
Separate reporting has pointed to broader weather patterns shaping the season. Daily Nation reported that Tropical Storm Agueda is interfering with the rains, while People Daily examined how Indian Ocean weather patterns are delaying their arrival. Citizen Digital reported that Nairobi is among the areas on alert. The Standard, meanwhile, framed the season as a test of whether Kenya can turn climate forecasts into resilience on the ground.
For now, the immediate question is whether the forecast rain materializes. The advisory runs through October 28 at peak intensity, with a expected decline by October 30. Watch whether KMSA extends or lifts the advisory, and whether county governments begin activating flood-response measures in the 18 counties flagged as high risk.
