Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has won the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, according to a projection by the NBC News Decision Desk. The result, reported early on the morning of Nov. 4, 2026, hands Democrats a statewide victory in Texas for the first time since 1994.
Talarico defeated Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, along with independent candidate Ted Brown. With an estimated 93.5 percent of expected votes counted, NBC News had Talarico at 55.0 percent, Paxton at 43.1 percent and Brown at 1.9 percent. The network estimated roughly 670,000 votes remained outstanding at the time of its 3:54 a.m. ET update.
Why it matters
A Democratic Senate win in Texas is a significant break with three decades of state voting history. NBC News noted that no Democrat had captured a statewide office in Texas since 1994, and Talarico's campaign was aimed squarely at ending that streak.
The race also drew attention because of Paxton's record. He was impeached by the Texas House in 2023 over bribery and corruption allegations, though the state Senate acquitted him and he remained in office. President Donald Trump backed Paxton in the contest, according to NBC News.
Beyond the Senate seat itself, NBC News reported that the Texas Senate race shifted 25.67 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election, based on its county-by-county comparison. The network displays such vote-shift figures once enough of a county's expected vote has been counted.
How the night unfolded
The vote count showed a sharp geographic divide across Texas. In Anderson County, with 95 percent of votes in, Paxton led with 71.6 percent to Talarico's 26.1 percent and Brown's 2.3 percent. Andrews County, at 99 percent counted, gave Paxton 70.3 percent, Talarico 26.7 percent and Brown 3.1 percent. Angelina County, 95 percent in, showed Paxton at 63.9 percent, Talarico at 33.5 percent and Brown at 2.6 percent. Aransas County, also 95 percent counted, had Paxton at 70.2 percent, Talarico at 27.6 percent and Brown at 2.2 percent.
Those county-level figures reflect only a handful of the state's 254 counties and were reported as partial counts. The statewide totals reported by NBC News showed Talarico ahead despite strong Paxton margins in the counties listed.
NBC News said its vote data comes from The Associated Press, while its race calls are made by the NBC News Decision Desk. The network describes the expected vote as an estimate of the total ballots a race will ultimately include, built from early-voting information and figures supplied by county election officials on Election Day. That estimate can be revised as more information arrives.
The same NBC News results page showed Democrats projected to hold control of the Senate and the House. It also carried projected results in other races, including Nevada's lieutenant governor contest, where Democrat Jauregui was projected the winner with 54.2 percent to Republican Anthony's 41.5 percent. Those figures appeared alongside the Texas Senate results and were not connected to the Talarico-Paxton race.
What to watch
NBC News estimated about 670,000 votes were still outstanding when it made its projection, and county tallies will continue to be finalized. The network's vote-shift analysis and county breakdowns will update as the remaining ballots are counted.
