The Middle East is on edge as Washington and Tel Aviv weigh renewed military action against Iran, with Israeli leaders pushing for strikes while the US administration signals it will not move before the November 3 midterm elections, Al Jazeera reported. The Qatar-based broadcaster described a region gripped by anticipation, marked by mutual threats and conflicting assessments of how close a new round of attacks might be.
According to Al Jazeera, some signals suggest a strike could be near, while others indicate Washington is not set on a military showdown in the immediate term — at least not before Americans vote next month.
Why it matters
A fresh war with Iran would reshape security calculations across the Gulf, disrupt energy markets and draw in regional proxies. It would also land in the middle of a US election campaign and, per Al Jazeera, an Israeli election season, making the timing of any operation as politically charged as the operation itself.
US force posture and Israeli pressure
The Wall Street Journal, cited by Al Jazeera, reported that the US military is drawing up a set of options for strikes on Iran, according to officials described as familiar with the planning. Two carrier strike groups are already in the Middle East, and a third is heading toward the region from the Pacific, though it remains unclear whether all three will stay.
Roughly 20 US naval vessels are currently in the area, a figure expected to rise above 24 once a carrier group and a Marine unit arrive, according to the newspaper. Al Jazeera said this would significantly expand the Navy's capacity for round-the-clock operations and give President Trump additional options, including amphibious landings.
Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for US Central Command, told the Wall Street Journal that the military moves assets routinely but does not disclose details for operational security reasons, Al Jazeera reported.
On the Israeli side, the newspaper reported that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is pressing for a resumption of strikes inside Iran and that Israel has handed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth a list of targets based on intelligence. Al Jazeera said Netanyahu has publicly hinted at using force again, arguing that toppling the Tehran government is the only way to eliminate the Iranian threat — a stance he struck during the final week of a tight re-election campaign.
Defense Minister Israel Katz also warned of a potential Iranian threat, saying Wednesday: "If Iran attacks Israel, Iran will burn," according to Al Jazeera.
The Axios news site, quoted by Al Jazeera, reported that dozens of Israeli fighter jets flew near Iranian airspace on Monday. Officials speaking anonymously said the sortie was meant to deter Tehran, but could have triggered a miscalculation and an Iranian response that reignited the war. Israel's Channel 12 suggested Tel Aviv likely hoped Iranian forces would fire on the aircraft, providing a pretext for an attack, Al Jazeera reported.
Restraint in Washington and among Israeli commanders
Not everyone is eager for a new round. Israel's military is wary of returning to war now, according to Haaretz, as cited by Al Jazeera. Commanders reportedly fear a strike on Iran could sway the Knesset election at the last moment — or even force a postponement. Haaretz said the likelihood of such a scenario currently appears greatly diminished, though Netanyahu continues to press both the US administration and his own military chiefs to move ahead with a possible attack later.
American officials have also shown little appetite for hitting Iran before the midterms. A White House spokeswoman told the Wall Street Journal that the United States will not attack Iran before the midterm elections, according to Al Jazeera. Regional officials told the newspaper they are treating the risk of escalation seriously amid Trump's threats, Iran's refusal to yield to his demands, and the absence of a real breakthrough in mediation efforts following a visit to Iran by Pakistani army chief Asim Munir.
The New York Times, also cited by Al Jazeera, reported that US and Israeli militaries have drawn up plans for strikes on Iran after the elections, reducing the likelihood of an imminent attack beforehand. The Financial Times reported Wednesday that Netanyahu had instructed the Israeli military earlier this month to prepare plans to resume strikes, but that Trump opposed the idea. Still, the New York Times said, Trump is keeping all options open to ensure Iran does not obtain nuclear weapons.
Al Jazeera's Washington correspondent Wajd Waqfi reported that Trump accused Iran of prolonging the war past the midterms in the hope that Republicans lose.
The picture is further complicated by signs of de-escalation. NBC News, cited by Al Jazeera, reported that the US military has reduced its troop presence across the Middle East in recent days and that the State Department ordered further cuts in staffing at several missions in the region. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott said in a post on X that the order covered non-essential US government employees and their family members in Saudi Arabia only, citing Houthi attacks on civilian targets in the kingdom, including airports and other critical infrastructure, which he said caused civilian casualties and severe travel disruption.
Iran, for its part, is holding its ground on the nuclear file and on managing the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported, preserving leverage over global energy prices. On Tuesday, Tehran told Islamabad — which is mediating between Iran and Washington — that it rejects transferring enriched uranium out of the country. Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf said Iran "has nothing new to say to America," insisting that Washington can only earn Tehran's trust by implementing seven conditions, and that threats and military movements cannot affect the Islamic Republic's strategic decisions, according to Al Jazeera. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi wrote in a Financial Times opinion piece that Iran will not accept negotiations unless the United States abandons its conditions, Al Jazeera reported.
What to watch: whether the third carrier group stays in the region after the November 3 vote, and whether Israeli pressure for a target list translates into action once the ballots are counted.
