Harry Kane is the leading candidate to win the Ballon d'Or at Monday's ceremony, which is being held in London as a one-off, according to DW.com. A win would make the Bayern Munich striker the first player from the German club to take the award since Karl-Heinz Rummenigge in 1981. Kane was born 12 years after that victory.
The award judges performances from the 2025-26 season, in which Kane scored 73 goals for club and country. His main challenger appears to be Lamine Yamal, the Barcelona and Spain forward who won the World Cup with Spain and the La Liga title in the same campaign.
Why it matters
Beyond the individual honor, a Kane win would lift the profile of the Bundesliga, which DW.com notes has fallen behind other top European leagues, particularly England's Premier League and Spain's La Liga, in both commercial reach and on-field results.
The rarity of the achievement is part of the story. According to DW.com, the last player to win the Ballon d'Or for a season played outside England or Spain was Kaka with AC Milan in 2007, when Italy's Serie A was still regarded as one of the strongest leagues in Europe. Ousmane Dembélé, last year's winner, claimed the prize after Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League triumph, while Lionel Messi has won it repeatedly. The last Bundesliga player to take the trophy was Borussia Dortmund's Matthias Sammer in 1996.
Kane told Bayern's club magazine Säbener51 that the London setting feels meaningful to him. He said the ceremony's location is special given that he grew up and spent much of his life in the city, and suggested it might be a good sign. He described the Ballon d'Or as a major achievement on a personal level.
A record that keeps growing
Kane's case rests on more than last season's tally. Since joining Bayern from Tottenham in 2023 as the most expensive signing in Bundesliga history, he has scored 156 goals in 158 appearances for the German champions. That spell has brought two league titles and a German Cup, though success with England has remained out of reach, with the national team exiting the 2026 World Cup at the semifinal stage.
His club coach, Vincent Kompany, said Kane's value goes beyond finishing. Kompany noted that during Kane's time in England he was viewed primarily as a scorer, but that other qualities, including his reading of the game, have become more visible in Germany. He compared Kane to a fine wine that improves with age.
At 33, Kane is producing at a stage when many players begin to decline. DW.com reports that his game relies more on technique and positioning than on pace, and teammate Serge Gnabry credits his professionalism for keeping him at the top. Gnabry said Kane consistently sets the standard with his attitude and never deviates from his approach.
That all-round contribution was on display in Bayern's 2-2 Champions League draw with Arsenal on Wednesday. Kane converted a penalty and supplied the pass from which Alphonso Davies opened the scoring. Speaking after the match, Kane said the assist was among his best, explaining that he anticipated Davies would reach the ball with his speed. He added that he will help the team however he can, and that assists have recently come more easily than goals.
From loans to the top
Kane's route to the summit was not direct. After signing his first senior contract with Tottenham in July 2010, he was loaned to lower-division clubs between 2011 and 2013 without making a major impact. Jermain Defoe, a former teammate who also coached Kane at Spurs, told DW.com in 2023 that those spells demanded resilience, since a loan can feel like rejection by a parent club even when it is not. Defoe said Kane's talent was evident once he trained with the first team, describing a natural finisher who struck the ball cleanly and looked comfortable in front of goal.
Dave Bricknell, Kane's first coach at the amateur side Ridgeway Rovers in northeast London, offered a similar assessment to DW.com after the move to Bayern. He said Kane's mentality is his strongest asset and that a missed chance never unsettles him.
England coach Thomas Tuchel has also highlighted Kane's leadership, calling him the first to drive the group and describing him as a complete forward who pairs finishing with hard work.
DW.com notes that skeptics question whether Kane's numbers are inflated by weaker opposition in international qualifiers and in the Bundesliga, which has fewer elite clubs and less money than the Premier League. His Premier League record of 213 goals in 320 games is slightly below his Bundesliga rate, though it stands comparison with any player in the competition's history.
Kane is under contract with Bayern until 2028, the year he turns 35 and the year the next European Championship is held in the UK and Ireland. His form since arriving in Germany suggests further improvement is possible.
The ceremony on Monday will settle the question of whether that form is enough to end Bayern's long wait.
