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Democrats Warn Poll Leads May Be Misleading as US Midterms Enter Final Day

Democrats Warn Poll Leads May Be Misleading as US Midterms Enter Final Day

Martín R.

Martín R.

2h ago·3
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Early voting closed in most US states on Sunday, with preliminary figures showing record turnout in many places compared with the midterms four years ago, according to Göteborgs-Posten. Attention now shifts to Tuesday's election day for voters who have not yet cast a ballot.

Democratic leaders and their candidates are pushing back against what they describe as a misleading sense of safety created by opinion polls. According to Göteborgs-Posten, the party is warning that surveys may make voters believe the outcome is already settled, and is urging people in competitive states to turn out regardless.

Why it matters

The warnings point to the central risk in a close election: that supporters of a party expecting to win stay home. Göteborgs-Posten reports that polling in key states sits within the margin of error, with several Senate contests rated as tight. In that situation, small shifts in who actually votes can decide control of Congress and of state governments.

The stakes extend beyond Washington. Thirty-six governorships are also on the ballot, and the newspaper notes that these races draw far less national attention and fundraising than they deserve.

Three former presidents on the trail

Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Joe Biden have all campaigned in recent days, appearing on behalf of House and Senate candidates as well as those running for governor.

Obama argued that the public and donors overlook governors' races, saying their profile does not match their importance, according to Göteborgs-Posten. He stressed that whoever holds a governor's office shapes how a state develops.

Biden went further, framing the governor contests as groundwork for the presidential election in two years. In his view, Democratic governors in large, influential states would improve the conditions for voters there to back a Democratic presidential candidate in 2028, the newspaper reports.

Göteborgs-Posten notes that the two major parties dominate the contests, leaving candidates from other parties or running as independents with little prospect of winning.

The hunt for undecided voters

Both parties are concentrating on voters who have not made up their minds. People who describe themselves as independent are usually estimated at around a third of US election surveys, but that group shrinks as election day approaches, with genuinely undecided voters put at roughly 13 percent by the end, according to the newspaper.

Alongside appeals to vote, the parties are asking supporters for money, including small donations, and casting the closest races as decisive for the country's direction. Göteborgs-Posten reports that the message from the three Democratic former presidents matches the line taken by Republican President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance: that responsibility for the result rests with each individual voter.

Voters cite the economy and the war in Iran as the most important issues this year, the newspaper reports. Fuel prices for petrol and diesel have risen sharply, as have prices for everyday goods. Resistance to the construction of large AI data centres is also influencing races in several states, according to Göteborgs-Posten.

Pressure on election staff

Concern about disruption to the vote is also a factor. More than 30 percent of election workers say they have faced some form of pressure or threat during early voting, the newspaper reports.

Tina Barton, deputy head of the Committee for Safe and Secure Elections, told Göteborgs-Posten that work has been under way for several years to train staff on security and to ensure systems keep functioning under strain. She said there is strong readiness for the election to run without problems.

Watch whether turnout on Tuesday holds up in the tightest states, and whether reports of pressure on election workers increase as voting concludes.

#us midterms#democrats#early voting#governors races#election security

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