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A Datafolha survey released Thursday places Flávio Bolsonaro at 47% and Lula at 46% in Brazil's second-round presidential race, according to G1. The outlet reported the results on Thursday, 22 October 2026.
The same poll, as cited by Folha de S.Paulo, shows the two candidates level at 50% of valid votes each, which excludes blank and null ballots. The one-point gap in the overall figures therefore falls within the survey's margin of error.
Coverage of the race has focused on turnout. Estadão reported that the CEO of Indexa said abstention could decide the contest while Flávio Bolsonaro remains the favorite. Poder360 also published results from a separate PoderData/Aya survey on the same matchup, though the figures from that poll were not included in the material available.
The numbers invite comparison with the last election. CartaCapital looked back at what the polls showed three days before the 2022 second round, when Lula faced the incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
With the race this close, the next Datafolha reading and any further PoderData/Aya surveys will be watched for signs of movement.
