Brazilian financial market analysts have trimmed their projections for inflation and economic growth in 2026, while leaving the benchmark interest rate forecast unchanged, according to the latest Focus report released Monday.
The weekly central bank survey now sees the Selic rate ending 2026 at 13.75%, the same level as the previous week's estimate, per InfoMoney. Economists also lowered their expectations for the IPCA consumer price index and gross domestic product expansion next year, the outlet reported.
The adjustment comes just ahead of the release of Brazil's second-quarter GDP data. O Globo noted that market participants are bracing for the official figures, which are expected to show how the economy performed in the April-to-June period.
Money Times reported that analysts revised their inflation forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 in this week's Focus bulletin. Estadão highlighted that while the 2026 inflation projection has fallen, it still exceeds the central bank's target ceiling.
Folha de S.Paulo added that economists also cut their predictions for inflation and GDP in the current year, reflecting a more cautious outlook on the domestic economy.
The Focus survey, which polls roughly 100 financial institutions each week, is closely watched by investors and policymakers as a gauge of market sentiment. The central bank has kept the Selic rate elevated to combat persistent price pressures, even as growth expectations soften.
The next data point to watch will be the official second-quarter GDP release, which could prompt further revisions to the market's forecasts in the coming weeks.
