A low pressure area over the Bay of Bengal is intensifying and may develop into a cyclone that could strike India's Andhra Pradesh coast by Wednesday, Bangladesh's meteorological department said in a special bulletin on Sunday morning, according to bdnews24.com.
The system was sitting over the east-central Bay and the adjoining south-east Bay, the bulletin said. It was moving southward and gathering strength, and the department said it could become a deep depression later on Sunday. After that it may change direction and track west-northwest.
At 6:00am on Sunday the depression was centred 785 kilometres south of Chattogram port, 700 kilometres south of Cox's Bazar port, 820 kilometres south of Mongla port and 760 kilometres south of Payra port, bdnews24.com reported.
Winds near the centre of the system were blowing steadily at 40 kilometres per hour within a 44-kilometre radius, with gusts or squalls reaching up to 50 kilometres per hour. The sea was rough in the area around the depression.
The department asked the four seaports — Chattogram, Cox's Bazar, Mongla and Payra — to hoist distant warning signal number one. Fishing boats and trawlers working in the northern Bay were told to stay close to the coast and move cautiously until further instructions.
Why it matters
A cyclone forming in October puts Bangladesh's south-eastern and south-western coastlines on alert at a time when fishing communities are often out at sea. Even a system that ultimately makes landfall in India can bring rough seas, heavy rain and strong winds to Bangladesh's coastal districts, and the early signal gives ports and boat operators time to prepare.
The bulletin also matters because of where the storm is expected to go. A track toward Andhra Pradesh would spare Bangladesh a direct hit, but forecasts at this stage can shift, and the depression is still strengthening.
What the bulletin says
The weather office's Sunday update described a system that is still organising itself. It was located well out to sea — roughly 700 to 820 kilometres south of Bangladesh's four main ports — and was drifting south rather than toward the coast.
Forecasters expect that to change. The depression is projected to deepen into a deep depression during the day, then curve onto a west-northwest path. That turn is what would carry it toward the Indian coast rather than toward Bangladesh.
The wind speeds reported so far are modest for a tropical system: 40 kilometres per hour sustained, rising to 50 in gusts. Those figures describe conditions near the centre of the depression as of Sunday morning, not the strength it might reach later.
The department's warning signal number one is the lowest of its distant caution signals. It tells ports that a system is far offshore but worth watching, rather than that a storm is imminent.
Regional watch
Bangladeshi outlets have been tracking the same system through the weekend. The Daily Star Bangla raised the question of what the storm would be named, asking whether it would be called "Arnab" or "Murasu." SAMAKAL reported that the depression could become a cyclone within a day, and Banglanews24 said it would gather strength and turn into a severe cyclone. News18 Bengali reported that the process had begun in the Bay of Bengal and warned of severe weather in districts of Bengal.
Those reports go further than the meteorological department's Sunday bulletin, which described a depression expected to become a deep depression and did not state a peak intensity. Cyclone names in the region are assigned from a rotating list agreed by countries around the North Indian Ocean, and a system receives a name only once it reaches a set strength.
bdnews24.com reported that the department's own outlook points to a Wednesday crossing of the Andhra Pradesh coast. That timing, and the west-northwest turn, are the two elements of the forecast most likely to be revised as the system develops.
For Bangladesh, the practical effects so far are limited to sea conditions and the port signals. The department's advice to fishing crews — stay near the shore, proceed carefully, await further orders — reflects the possibility of sudden squalls near the centre of the depression rather than a forecast of coastal damage.
What to watch
The next bulletin from the meteorological department will show whether the depression has deepened as expected and whether its projected track has shifted. Any move toward a named cyclone, or a change in the Wednesday landfall outlook, would be the signal for coastal districts to reassess.
