Australia is set to join Japan and Italy in a demographic group where deaths outnumber births, according to ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation. The broadcaster reported the development on Monday, 21 September 2026.
The shift places Australia alongside two countries long associated with ageing populations and shrinking natural growth. ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation did not provide figures for the change in its report.
The projection arrives amid wider discussion of Australia's economic direction. Other outlets covering the same period examined related questions: SMH.com.au weighed whether the country faces a rising tax burden or rosy prospects, The Guardian argued the numbers tell a different story for those who think less migration would leave Australia better off, and The Australian described Treasury's predicted boom as pure fantasy.
Together, the coverage points to an economy and population under strain, with natural increase no longer offsetting deaths. Migration has become central to that debate, as has the question of how the government funds its plans.
The ABC report did not set out a timeline for when deaths are expected to overtake births, nor did it specify the cause of the trend.
What to watch next: whether Australia's official statistics confirm the crossover, and how it shapes the migration and budget arguments already under way.
