An Atlas/Estadão survey released Wednesday shows Tarcísio leading Haddad by 55% to 41% in the first round of São Paulo's governor race, according to Estadão. The poll covers the initial round of the contest, in which the two candidates are the leading figures.
The same reporting round includes a separate Quaest survey with a different picture. G1, UOL Notícias, VEJA and Gazeta do Povo all reported the Quaest results as Tarcísio at 44% and Haddad at 27% in the first round. The gap between the two polls is notable: Atlas/Estadão puts the race at 14 points, while Quaest puts it at 17 points, though the overall levels differ substantially between the two surveys.
Both polls were published in the same news cycle and focus on the same first-round matchup in São Paulo state. The material available does not include sample sizes, margins of error, fieldwork dates or the names of the polling firms' clients, so those details cannot be reported here.
Polls in Brazil's state races are closely watched because São Paulo is the country's largest electoral college. The two surveys arrive as the governor's race takes shape ahead of the vote.
What to watch next: further polling and any official confirmation of candidate registrations will show whether the gap between the Atlas/Estadão and Quaest numbers narrows or holds.
