South Africa's African National Congress is contesting the 4 November local government elections under mounting pressure, with polling projections pointing to further losses and a growing reliance on coalition partners to hold power in major municipalities. According to Mail & Guardian, the vote is widely seen as a test of whether the party can slow a decline that has run from 65% support in the 2006 municipal elections to 40.2% in the 2024 national elections.
The campaign has been unsettled. Mail & Guardian reports that the ANC failed to field mayoral candidates in several municipalities, that tensions surfaced within the tripartite alliance, and that questions arose over Deputy President Paul Mashatile's health. Secretary-general Fikile Mbalula collapsed after the Constitutional Court reinstated 181 candidates the party had missed registering before the Electoral Commission's deadline.
Why it matters
The outcome will shape not only who runs South Africa's cities and towns but also the ANC's standing ahead of the 2029 national elections. According to Mail & Guardian, analyst Wayne Sussman described the 2026 local elections as the last municipal contest under President Cyril Ramaphosa's leadership of the party, making the result a signal of its direction.
The numbers also point to a structural shift. Hung councils rose from 27 after the 2016 local elections to 70 in 2021, and projections suggest more of the same. After the 2021 vote, the Democratic Alliance controlled 24 councils and the Inkatha Freedom Party governed 16, with other parties taking smaller municipalities.
Projections point to a fragmented map
Polling cited by Mail & Guardian suggests the ANC could shed at least six percentage points from its 2024 national share, landing in the mid-30s. Ipsos puts the ANC at 31%, the DA at 25%, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party at 14%, the Economic Freedom Fighters at 11%, ActionSA at 6%, the IFP at 3% and the Patriotic Alliance at 2%.
The picture varies by metro. In Johannesburg, Markdata polling reported by eNCA projects the DA leading with 35% to the ANC's 22%. In Tshwane, Sabi polling reported by News24 puts the DA at 32%, the ANC at 24%, the EFF at 14% and ActionSA at 11%. Johannesburg, Tshwane, Ekurhuleni, Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City and eThekwini are all expected to produce no outright winner, according to Mail & Guardian.
Competition is sharpest from the DA in Gauteng and the MK Party in KwaZulu-Natal, and the ANC could fall below 30% in some areas. Its rural support has historically held firmer than in cities, though smaller and regional parties and persistent complaints about water and electricity supply could eat into that base.
Sussman told Mail & Guardian that the three Gauteng metros, along with Nelson Mandela Bay, Mogale City and Emfuleni, are key battlegrounds where coalition talks may decide who governs. He argued the ANC lost an opening by not naming mayoral candidates, noting that voters want to know who would lead their municipalities even though they do not choose the mayor directly.
Political strategist Jonathan Moakes told Mail & Guardian he expects a weak ANC showing, though the Constitutional Court ruling may let the party assemble a coalition in Mangaung. He suggested factionalism and fears of defections, particularly to the MK Party, may explain the reluctance to select mayoral candidates in some places. In Johannesburg, the party has weighed national executive committee member Frank Chikane, current mayor Dada Morero and deputy mayor Loyiso Masuku, with its final approach still unclear.
Sussman added that while the ANC is vulnerable, it still holds more leverage in coalition talks than parties such as the DA and MK, whose electoral ceilings he flagged, along with a possible slight decline for the MK Party from its 2024 result.
Watch whether the ANC can convert its residual leverage into coalition deals in the Gauteng metros and Nelson Mandela Bay once the results are in.
