Deportivo Alavés welcome Málaga to Estadio Mendizorroza on Friday 23 October for a 12:00 kick-off, with Sportsgambler publishing a full betting preview that favours the home side. The outlet prices an Alavés win at -132 in the Full-Time Result market, describing the odds as attractive given that it expects Los Babazorros to dominate the match.
Sportsgambler's analysis covers a main match prediction alongside a correct score pick, player props, a corners prediction and a bet builder. The publisher states that its odds and lines were correct at the time of publication and may change.
Why it matters
The fixture pairs two teams moving in opposite directions in La Liga. Alavés sit seventh, while Málaga are bottom of the table with four points from nine matches, according to Sportsgambler. That gap shapes both the betting markets and the outlet's reasoning.
Sportsgambler reports that bookmakers give its Alavés selection an implied 56.8% chance of returning, while its own tipsters place the probability higher, in a range of 60% to 65%. It also notes the bookies' caution on the outright price, citing -161 for an Alavés victory and +475 for a Málaga win.
Form points in Alavés's favour
Alavés have lost their last two La Liga matches. Sportsgambler reports the most recent as a 2-1 defeat away to Celta Vigo at Estadio Balaídos, where Quique Sanchez Flores' side held 52% possession and recorded nine shots on target, with Hugo Novoa scoring their only goal.
Across the season, Sportsgambler's figures show Alavés with three wins, five losses and two draws, averaging 1.4 goals from 5.4 shots on goal and 13.0 attempts per game. The outlet adds that they have averaged 42.5% possession, 336.6 passes and 4.4 corners, while opponents have managed 1.2 goals from 4.6 shots on goal, 12.2 attempts and 5.1 corners.
Lucas Boye leads the scoring with five goals, followed by Mariano Diaz on three, with Hugo Novoa and two other players on one each. Diaz is the leading assist provider with four, and goalkeeper Antonio Sivera has kept three clean sheets.
Málaga's season has been far harder. Sportsgambler reports one win, five losses and four draws, with an average of 0.8 goals from 11.6 attempts and 3.3 shots on goal. Los Boquerones average 51.0% possession and 5.7 corners awarded against 5.1 conceded, while letting in 1.9 goals from 14.5 attempts and 5.8 shots on goal.
Their latest outing was a 5-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad at Estadio La Rosaleda. Sportsgambler reports that Málaga had 46% possession and six shots on target in that game, with Adrian Nino and Pablo Martinez both scoring. Nino is the club's top scorer on three, Chupe has two, and Pablo Martinez and two others have one apiece. Martinez has provided two assists, and Alfonso Herrero has one clean sheet in the previous ten games.
The most recent head-to-head went Alavés's way, a 2-1 home win in La Liga 2 at Mendizorroza.
Lineups, correct score and prop selections
Both teams' confirmed lineups are listed by Sportsgambler. Alavés line up in a 5-3-2: Antonio Sivera in goal, with Nahuel Tenaglia, Ville Koski, Nicolas Valentini, Angel Perez and Abderrahman Rebbach across the back, Pablo Ibanez, Antonio Blanco and Carles Alena in midfield, and Lucas Boye alongside Mariano Diaz up front.
Málaga set up in a 4-1-4-1: Alfonso Herrero in goal, Carlos Puga, Angel Recio, Einar Galilea and Rafita in defence, Ramon Enriquez holding, David Larrubia, Carlos Dotor, Dani Lorenzo and Adam Aznou in midfield, and Adrian Nino as the lone striker.
Beyond the outright result, Sportsgambler suggests an Asian Handicap line for those who expect Alavés to prove too strong, and picks Alavés at +575 to win 2-0 for its correct score selection. It also tips Antonio Blanco to record at least one shot on goal at +170 and names Abde Rebbach at +430 in the Anytime Goalscorer market.
On corners, the outlet notes that Málaga have covered the 3.5 line in eight straight matches and that Alavés have conceded an average of 5.60 corners across their previous five home games. It therefore backs Málaga to cover the Team Corners line at -123.
Its bet builder combines an Alavés win, Under 2.5 goals and Lucas Boye to score. Sportsgambler describes Under 2.5 as the most likely total goals outcome on the pricing, and lists Both Teams to Score No at -137. Lucas Boye to find the net anytime is available at +132.
The preview also explains the Alavés -0.75 Asian Handicap at -130, which pays in full if the hosts win by two or more goals, returns half the stake and refunds the rest if they win by one.
Sportsgambler states that it takes a stats-led approach, using team news and recent form to identify value, and reminds readers that prices move after publication. Its preview carries standard betting warnings, noting that terms and conditions apply and that gambling is for adults only.
Kick-off at Mendizorroza is set for 12:00 on Friday 23 October, after which attention turns to whether Alavés can end their two-match losing run or whether Málaga can claim only a second win of the campaign.
