The African Development Bank has warned that a powerful El Niño weather event could cost Africa up to $20bn, shrink gross domestic product, and trigger migration, according to Business Insider Africa.
Business Insider Africa reports that the AfDB’s climate chief said the continent faces an economic hit of between $10bn and $20bn from the “super” El Niño. The warning comes as several African nations are already grappling with severe weather patterns linked to the climate phenomenon.
The AfDB’s assessment adds a fresh climate threat to Africa’s growth outlook. The bank’s warning suggests that the economic damage could be substantial enough to reduce GDP across affected regions and drive population movement as livelihoods are disrupted. The report did not specify which countries would be most affected, but El Niño typically brings extreme rainfall to some parts of East Africa and drought to southern Africa.
Other outlets have also reported on the expected impact. TimesLIVE cited the same AfDB climate chief’s warning of a $10bn to $20bn hit. Mail & Guardian published a piece on preparing for El Niño, while businesstech.co.za noted severe weather hopes for South Africa. OkayAfrica also covered the AfDB’s warning on July 27, 2026.
The coming months will show whether the predicted El Niño materialises with the force the AfDB fears, and how African governments and international partners respond to limit the economic fallout.
