Germany is vaccinating far too few young people against human papillomavirus (HPV), according to a new German HPV atlas reported by Tagesspiegel. In 2024, only 55 percent of 15-year-old girls and 36 percent of 15-year-old boys in Germany were fully immunised — well short of the World Health Organization's goal of 90 percent coverage for girls by 2030. The figures come as a separate modelling study in Nature Medicine projects that cervical cancer cases and deaths will climb worldwide over the coming decades.
Why it matters
Nearly all cervical cancer is caused by infection with high-risk types of HPV, a link researchers established in the 1980s and 1990s. The virus spreads through close contact with mucous membranes, typically during sex, which is why young people with changing partners are often affected. Estimates suggest 85 to 90 percent of men and women contract HPV at least once in their lives. Most infections go unnoticed and clear on their own; according to the German atlas, fewer than one percent lead to cancer.
Because a timely vaccination before first sexual contact offers reliable protection — condoms, by contrast, only partly guard against HPV — immunisation coverage directly shapes how many preventable cancers occur. Germany has recommended the shot for girls aged 9 to 14 since 2007 and for boys of the same age since 2018, with statutory health insurers covering the cost.
A widening gap between regions
The Nature Medicine study, led by Natalie Pritchett and Lisa Force of the University of Washington in Seattle, extrapolated current trends into the future. It projects that by 2050 roughly one million women worldwide could develop cervical cancer each year, an increase of about 20 percent in absolute case numbers compared with 2024. Annual deaths could reach around 522,000 — a rise of almost 40 percent.
The researchers expect the burden to diverge sharply by income level. In regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, case and death numbers could grow substantially as demographic change enlarges the pool of women at risk while vaccination and care remain inadequate. In wealthier countries, by contrast, incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 women are expected to fall, though the overall disease burden stays high because populations are ageing.
The authors stressed that their projections are not a no-action scenario. Progress is being made, they said, but the forecasts assume that policy implementation continues at its current pace, alongside demographic shifts and socioeconomic development.
Regional and gender gaps inside Germany
The German atlas describes vaccination rates as very low by European standards, with marked regional and gender differences. Among 15-year-old girls, coverage ranged from 70 percent in Saxony-Anhalt to 42 percent in Baden-Württemberg. Boys lag further behind, at 36 percent nationwide. The atlas also notes that the recent rise in coverage has slowed noticeably.
The authors point to the organisation of vaccination delivery as one factor. In Germany, family doctors are responsible for administering the shot. Comparisons with other countries suggest that school-based programmes frequently achieve much higher HPV vaccination rates than practice-based ones, according to the atlas.
Global targets slipping out of reach
Germany is not alone in falling short of the WHO's 2030 goals. Besides 90 percent vaccination coverage for girls, those targets include screening for 70 percent of women aged 35 to 45 and appropriate treatment for 90 percent of women with cervical changes. According to the Pritchett and Force projections, no world region will reach the threshold of four new cases per 100,000 women by 2050 — the level regarded as eliminating cervical cancer as a public health problem.
In Germany, the Robert Koch Institute estimated around 11,000 new HPV-related cancer cases in 2021: about 7,600 in women and 3,000 in men. Cervical cancer is the most common HPV-linked cancer in women. The virus can also cause precancerous lesions whose treatment may require surgery.
What to watch: whether German health authorities move toward school-based vaccination offers, and whether coverage among boys begins to close the gap with girls before the 2030 deadline.
