Oil prices fell sharply on Wednesday, with European Brent crude trading under $100 a barrel for the first time since Oct. 7, according to NBC News. The benchmark shed almost $8, or 8.3%, on the day, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate dropped 8.3% to settle near $88.12 — oil's largest single-day decline since April.
The sell-off was driven by mounting speculation that the Iran war may be moving toward a resolution. Trading desks and energy analysts were watching for signals that Tuesday's midterm election results would push President Donald Trump toward winding down the conflict without a major escalation, NBC News reported.
Why it matters
The war, launched by Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Feb. 28, sent gasoline and diesel costs soaring and deepened inflation that was already weighing on American households, farmers and small businesses. Any sustained retreat in crude prices could ease pressure at the pump and, more broadly, across the economy.
The political stakes were visible on election night. Trump, speaking to Fox News as early results came in, pointed to fuel costs as a factor in the outcome.
"I think it's the gasoline price," Trump said, according to NBC News. "People agree with what I'm doing on Iran, but they really probably weren't willing to do the short-term consequence of paying more for gasoline, and that, you know, I understand that."
Vice President JD Vance, in a social media post, said the war was the reason Republicans lost so heavily, and argued that any discussion of the party's path forward has to begin with that fact. NBC News noted Vance could be the GOP's leading candidate in the 2028 presidential race.
Voter sentiment appeared to back that reading. In an NBC News exit poll, 59% of those who cast ballots said they were "very concerned" about the cost of gas and diesel.
A three-session plunge from $118 to $94
The decline has been rapid. Brent traded as high as $118 a barrel on Friday and was around $94 by Wednesday, NBC News reported. Even after the drop, crude remains roughly 60% more expensive than at the start of the year.
Relief at the pump may not be far off. Patrick De Haan, an analyst at GasBuddy, told NBC News that the national average for gasoline could fall below $4 within "days ahead." On Wednesday morning, that average stood at $4.12 — 39% above where it sat before the war began and disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, said on social media that the coming weeks are usually a difficult stretch for fuel prices, but suggested further declines are possible if neither side adopts extreme measures in the Persian Gulf. He said prices could be considerably lower by the second half of December.
Diesel futures also fell Wednesday, down nearly 7% by midday to their lowest point since late August, according to NBC News. Because diesel fuels the trucks and trains that move goods such as groceries, its price feeds quickly into shelf prices across the economy — meaning the drop could eventually reach beyond the fuel station.
What to watch: whether the White House signals a change of course on Iran, and whether the national average gas price breaks below $4 in the coming days.
